अरब क्रांति 2.0 : कोरोना के बाद अरब देशों में निरंकुश सरकारों के खिलाफ भयंकर विद्रोह होने वाला है

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वर्ष 2010 में उत्तरी अफ्रीका के कई देशों समेत कुछ खाड़ी के देशों में सत्तावादी शासकों के खिलाफ विरोध प्रदशनों की एक जोरदार लहर देखने को मिली थी। तब इन देशों की युवा आबादी ने अपने बेहतर भविष्य और अपने देशों में लोकतान्त्रिक व्यवस्था को लागू करने के लिए अपने शासकों के खिलाफ सड़क पर उतरने का निर्णय लिया था। तब ट्यूनीसिया, अल्जीरिया, जॉर्डन, ओमान, इजिप्ट, यमन, कुवैत और मोरक्को जैसे देशों में बड़े पैमाने पर विरोध प्रदर्शन देखने को मिले थे, और इन प्रदर्शनों के परिणाम के तौर पर कई देशों में सत्ताधारियों को अपनी कुर्सी से हाथ धोना पड़ा था।

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वर्ष 2010 के समय इन सभी देशों की आर्थिक हालत बहुत खराब हो चुकी थी और निराशा से भरपूर युवाओं के पास सड़क पर उतरने के अलावा कोई चारा नहीं बचा था। तब उन विरोध प्रदर्शनों को अरब स्प्रिंग या अरब क्रांति कहा गया था। अरब क्रांति के इन देशों में ठीक 10 साल बाद आज फिर हालात बदतर हो चले हैं।

वर्ष 2019 में ही दोबारा इन देशों में विरोध प्रदर्शनों की शुरुआत हो चुकी थी। अब कोरोना के दौरान तो इन विरोध प्रदर्शनों में कमी देखने को मिल रही है, लेकिन जैसे ही यह महामारी खत्म होगी, इसके तुरंत बाद इन देशों में बड़े पैमाने पर विद्रोह देखने को मिल सकता है, जिससे इन देशों में अब अरब क्रांति 2.0 आने का खतरा बढ़ गया है।

उत्तरी अफ्रीका समेत खाड़ी के अधिकतर देशों की अर्थव्यवस्था तेल पर ही निर्भर होती है। कोरोना से पहले ही इन देशों में मंदी का माहौल था, अब कोरोना के बाद इन देशों की अर्थव्यवस्थाओं का तेल निकलना तय है। अर्थव्यवस्थाओं के डूबते ही ना सिर्फ इन देशों में बेरोजगारी बढ़ेगी बल्कि गरीबी और महंगाई भी बढ़ेगी। इससे इन देशों के युवाओं में अपने-अपने देशों की सरकारों के खिलाफ रोष पैदा होगा, और हमें कोरोना के बाद बड़े पैमाने पर विद्रोह यानि अरब क्रांति 2.0 देखने को मिल सकती है।

बता दें कि ट्यूनीसिया, जॉर्डन, इराक, सूडान अल्जीरिया, गाज़ा और इजिप्त जैसे देशों में तो वर्ष 2018 से दोबारा विरोध प्रदर्शन शुरू हो चुके हैं। जॉर्डन में वर्ष 2018 में हुए प्रदर्शनों के बाद वहाँ के प्रधानमंत्री Hani Mulki को इस्तीफा देना पड़ा था। इसके अलावा विरोध प्रदर्शनों की वजह से ही वर्ष 2018 में इराक़ के प्रधानमंत्री आदिल-अब्दुल महदी को भी इस्तीफा देना पड़ा था।

इसी तरह अल्जीरिया में ये विरोध प्रदर्शन कोरोना की वजह से टाल दिये जा चुके हैं और इनकी वजह से वर्ष 1999 से देश के राष्ट्रपति रहे अब्दुलअज़ीज़ बोटेफ्लिका को पिछले साल वर्ष 2019 में अपने पद से इस्तीफा देना पड़ा था। आप एक तरीके से यह भी कह सकते हैं कि वर्ष 2019 से ही अरब क्रांति 2.0 की शुरुआत हो चुकी है जहां कोरोना आग में घी जैसा काम करेगा।

कोरोना के कारण कच्चे तेल के दाम पहले ही ऐतिहासिक रूप से गिर चुके हैं, जिससे मुख्यतः तेल पर आश्रित देशों का तबाह होना निश्चित है। तबाही सिर्फ आर्थिक तौर पर ही नहीं, बल्कि राजनीतिक और सामाजिक तौर पर भी आ सकती है, क्योंकि इन देशों की आबादी किसी भी कीमत पर अपना शोषण नहीं सहेगी और इससे सरकार विरोधी मानसिकता को और ज़्यादा बढ़ावा मिलेगा।

उदाहरण के लिए इराक के कुल एक्स्पोर्ट्स में से 99.8 प्रतिशत एक्सपोर्ट कच्चे तेल का होता है। ऐसे ही अल्जीरिया के कुल एक्स्पोर्ट्स में से ऑइल एक्स्पोर्ट्स का हिस्सा 96.7 प्रतिशत है। सूडान के वर्ष 2011 के आंकड़ों के अनुसार देश के कुल एक्स्पोर्ट्स में से पेट्रोलियम का हिस्सा 90 प्रतिशत से भी ज़्यादा है। इन देशों में अरब विद्रोह 2.0 को बढ़ावा मिलने के सबसे ज़्यादा अनुमान है, जिसके बाद हम बड़े पैमाने पर इन देशों में राजनीतिक तंत्र में बदलाव देख सकते हैं।

सऊदी अरब और ओमान जैसे देश तो पहले ही बड़ी आर्थिक तबाही का अनुमान लगा लिए हैं। कुल मिलाकर अरब देशों के सामने जैसे ही कोरोना संकट खत्म होगा, वैसे ही इन देशों के सामने अरब क्रांति 2.0 का संकट आन खड़ा होगा। निकट भविष्य में अरब में शांति अभी दूर की कौड़ी ही दिखाई देती है।

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